The US jobless rate will reach 9.4 percent this year and remain elevated through at least 2011, a monthly Bloomberg News survey indicates.
The peak in unemployment surpasses the 8.8% estimated last month, according to the median of 54 projections in a survey taken from March 2 to March 9.
The average rate for the next two years will exceed the 25-year high of 8.1% reached in February, the survey shows.
The White House projected the jobless rate will decline to 7.9 percent next year. A worse performance means President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus plan may not prove sufficient, analysts said.
The unemployment rate in February was the highest since 1983, and employers cut 651,000 workers from payrolls, the government reported last week. The US has already lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in Dec. 2007.
Federal Reserve policy makers in January estimated US long-term growth potential at 2.5% to 2.7%, with an unemployment rate of 4.8% to 5%, a level that will be exceeded for at least four years, according to the Bloomberg survey.
The world's largest economy will shrink 2.5% this year, the most since 1946, and expand 1.8% next year, according to the survey median. Both figures were lower than estimated last month.
As unemployment rises, more Americans will be unable to make mortgage or car payments, choking off growth and leading to even higher joblessness, said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Banc of America Securities - Merrill Lynch in New York.
Rosenberg projected the jobless rate would reach 10% by the end of the year.
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